【新唐人2013年04月29日訊】大陸某研究H7N9禽流感病毒的官方科研團隊，最近發佈最新研究成果，表示﹕「H7N9病毒基因有3個已經移位，再移一個就會導致人傳人」，這一說法被各大媒體廣泛轉載，引起了民眾和相關專家的強烈關注，但團隊的專家在接受《中央電視臺》採訪時，又改口說「從未提過人傳人」。一位大陸疾控中心的疫苗專家揭祕了研究團隊專家前後矛盾的原因。
據4月27號大陸各大媒體報導，中國工程院院士、國家衛計委「傳染病重點研究室」主任李蘭娟的團隊，在H7N9禽流感病毒研究獲得兩項重大突破，第一是確認了人感染H7N9病毒的感染源為雞等家禽﹔第二是H7N9病毒正向適合感染的哺乳動物方向發展，這使病毒更容易感染到人。這一研究的論文，發表在世界著名醫學期刊《柳葉刀》的官方網站。
報導說，H7N9病毒基因如同一部旋轉樓梯，如果各個臺階穩定，傳染性就不明顯。這次研究發現的其中4個「臺階」及定位是關鍵，但目前其中3個「臺階」位置已經發生變化，假如再有一個「臺階」移位，就會破壞樓梯穩定性，那麼將使病毒發生有效的人向人傳播。
當有媒體記者問及：「這個可能性大嗎？」李蘭娟說，以往的H5N1及其他甲流病毒中，位點沒有發生過變異。不過，不等於說以後在H7N9中也不發生變化，因此需要密切關注！
但李蘭娟第二天在接受《央視》採訪時，明確否認說過H7N9病毒基因變異將導致「人傳人」。並表示，對於會不會發生人傳人，她不能肯定，也不能否認，還需要進一步研究和監測。對李蘭娟的改口，民眾多抱懷疑態度。
大陸疾控中心疫苗專家 趙大海：「 她是害怕出現社會動盪，人傳人的話造成老百姓的恐慌，迴避說這個人傳人的事情。你要是科學的來對待這個事情，反而社會比較安定，你違反科學的一種解釋，你對社會說『不人傳人』，你這樣解釋的話，反而造成老百姓的不信任了。不信任，還會造成社會恐慌。」
李蘭娟還對媒體辯解說，她只是提醒人們，如果病毒進一步變異的話，將更容易在哺乳動物之間傳播。但立刻有網友質問，難道人不屬於哺乳動物嗎？這不是在玩文字遊戲嗎？
對此，一位大陸某疾控中心的疫苗專家趙大海（化名）向《新唐人》透露，H7N9禽流感病毒其實已經具有人傳人性，只是沒有發現病例而已。
趙大海：「 其實這都是大家都共識的， 他們只是不說而已，但是說人傳人，他們現在只能說﹕沒發現人傳人的跡象。不人傳人的話，現在我們大夫、護士在治療這個病的時候， 他做了很強的防護措施來對待病人，還是擔心人傳人。」
趙大海還表示，從李蘭娟透露的信息可以分析出，H7N9病毒不但人傳人，而且人傳人的傳染力應該是增強了，而且已經掩蓋不住，否則官方不會公開這次研究成果。
大陸公共衛生公益機構「益仁平」負責人 陸軍: 「這些公共衛生的問題，主管部門一貫的作風就是隱瞞，他的邏輯就是維穩，只要公眾不知道、不知情，然後他動用手裡所有資源把事態能夠給控制住，把這個事態的影響也控制住，那就是符合他的利益了。」
此外，趙大海還透露一個驚人的消息，他說，因為知道H7N9的人傳人性，當局對H7N9防控已經到了草木皆兵的地步，各地區各大醫院的發熱門診裡，無論出現任何發熱問題，都統一按照H7N9禽流感病毒的一套去檢查，結果導致了部分病人病情被延誤甚至死亡。
採訪/林莉 編輯/張天宇 後製/葛雷
Vaccine Expert: H7N9 Can Spread Between Humans
Chinese scientists Revealed
An academic team in Mainland China
released its latest H7N9 virus investigation results.
They claim, “three of four gene mutations
have been identified;
if another mutation site is found, it would likely result
in an effective human-to-human transmission.”
The media widely circulated their words,
triggering strong concerns by the public and experts.
However, a researcher told China's Central Television
(CCTV) that they had never mentioned “person-to-person transmission.”
A vaccine expert of Disease Control Centre
analyzes the reason for this denial.
On April 27, media reported that research team led by
Li Lanjuan from the Chinese Academy of Engineering,
made two breakthroughs in the study of H7N9 virus.
Firstly, they discovered that wet market poultry was likely
the source for human infections with H7N9 virus.
Secondly, the virus is spreading to mammals,
and could eventually mutate to human-to-human spread.
The research was published in internationally renowned
medical journal The Lancet.
Media reported, if H7N9 virus' genome sequence is sturdy,
transmission of the virus isn't easy.
The research found that four genes of H7N9 virus
are the key.
Three of the four genes had been identified as mutated.
If the forth mutates, it will destroy the genome' sturdiness.
Then, the H7N9 virus would effectively express
a human-to-human transmission.
Some media reporters asked: “Is the later possibility big?”
Li Lanjuan said that in the past, H5N1 and other A-viruses, didn't have key genes mutating.
Yet, this doesn't mean the same applies to H7N9,
so outbreak is not ruled out, which needs close attention.
However, the following day in a CCTV' interview Li denied
saying H7N9 virus mutation will cause human-to-human transmission.
She said, she cannot specify if transmission between
humans is to happen, as further study is needed.
Nevertheless, the public and experts
are skeptical about Li's denial.
Zhao Dahai, vaccine expert at a Disease Control Centre
in Mainland China: “She is afraid of stirring social unrest.
Human-to-human transmission will cause public panic,
thus she denied the saying.
However, if authorities deal with it in a scientific manner,
the social community will feel safe.
Without a scientific explanation, just telling the public
there will be no human-to-human transmission, the public won't trust you.
This will result in a panic among the public.”
Li also told media, she only made people aware if the virus
mutates further it is easier to transmit between mammals.
Netizens immediately asked, aren't humans mammals?
And isn't she playing with the words?
Zhao Dahai told NTD that H7N9 avian influenza can spread
human-to-human, it is just that no cases are found yet.
Zhao Dahai: “Actually, everyone knows about it,
they just don't want to say it.
For the human-to-human transmission issue, they only
talk on the surface that no evidence has been found yet.
However, when the doctors treat patients,
they take many precocious measures to deal with patients,
as they still worry that H7N9 virus
can transmit between humans.”
Zhao Dahai also thinks, analyzing Li Lanjuan's explanation,
one can tell H7N9 can not only transmit between humans,
but also can badly spread among humans, which can't be
covered up; otherwise authorities won't air this research.
Lu Jun, director of public health charity: “The authorities
always cover up the public health issues.
Their logic is to ‘maintain stability’. As long as the public
doesn't know, they can control all the information.
They also can control the impact of the situation.
That is within their line of interests.”
Zhao Dahai revealed another shocking information.
He said that by knowing H7N9 virus is capable
to spread between humans, the authorities let their prevention imagination go wild.
In hospitals, for fever treatment every patient is forced
to undergo the process of H7N9 virus checking;
thus some patients'treatments are being delayed,
this resulting in their death.
據4月27號大陸各大媒體報導，中國工程院院士、國家衛計委「傳染病重點研究室」主任李蘭娟的團隊，在H7N9禽流感病毒研究獲得兩項重大突破，第一是確認了人感染H7N9病毒的感染源為雞等家禽﹔第二是H7N9病毒正向適合感染的哺乳動物方向發展，這使病毒更容易感染到人。這一研究的論文，發表在世界著名醫學期刊《柳葉刀》的官方網站。
報導說，H7N9病毒基因如同一部旋轉樓梯，如果各個臺階穩定，傳染性就不明顯。這次研究發現的其中4個「臺階」及定位是關鍵，但目前其中3個「臺階」位置已經發生變化，假如再有一個「臺階」移位，就會破壞樓梯穩定性，那麼將使病毒發生有效的人向人傳播。
當有媒體記者問及：「這個可能性大嗎？」李蘭娟說，以往的H5N1及其他甲流病毒中，位點沒有發生過變異。不過，不等於說以後在H7N9中也不發生變化，因此需要密切關注！
但李蘭娟第二天在接受《央視》採訪時，明確否認說過H7N9病毒基因變異將導致「人傳人」。並表示，對於會不會發生人傳人，她不能肯定，也不能否認，還需要進一步研究和監測。對李蘭娟的改口，民眾多抱懷疑態度。
大陸疾控中心疫苗專家 趙大海：「 她是害怕出現社會動盪，人傳人的話造成老百姓的恐慌，迴避說這個人傳人的事情。你要是科學的來對待這個事情，反而社會比較安定，你違反科學的一種解釋，你對社會說『不人傳人』，你這樣解釋的話，反而造成老百姓的不信任了。不信任，還會造成社會恐慌。」
李蘭娟還對媒體辯解說，她只是提醒人們，如果病毒進一步變異的話，將更容易在哺乳動物之間傳播。但立刻有網友質問，難道人不屬於哺乳動物嗎？這不是在玩文字遊戲嗎？
對此，一位大陸某疾控中心的疫苗專家趙大海（化名）向《新唐人》透露，H7N9禽流感病毒其實已經具有人傳人性，只是沒有發現病例而已。
趙大海：「 其實這都是大家都共識的， 他們只是不說而已，但是說人傳人，他們現在只能說﹕沒發現人傳人的跡象。不人傳人的話，現在我們大夫、護士在治療這個病的時候， 他做了很強的防護措施來對待病人，還是擔心人傳人。」
趙大海還表示，從李蘭娟透露的信息可以分析出，H7N9病毒不但人傳人，而且人傳人的傳染力應該是增強了，而且已經掩蓋不住，否則官方不會公開這次研究成果。
大陸公共衛生公益機構「益仁平」負責人 陸軍: 「這些公共衛生的問題，主管部門一貫的作風就是隱瞞，他的邏輯就是維穩，只要公眾不知道、不知情，然後他動用手裡所有資源把事態能夠給控制住，把這個事態的影響也控制住，那就是符合他的利益了。」
此外，趙大海還透露一個驚人的消息，他說，因為知道H7N9的人傳人性，當局對H7N9防控已經到了草木皆兵的地步，各地區各大醫院的發熱門診裡，無論出現任何發熱問題，都統一按照H7N9禽流感病毒的一套去檢查，結果導致了部分病人病情被延誤甚至死亡。
採訪/林莉 編輯/張天宇 後製/葛雷
Vaccine Expert: H7N9 Can Spread Between Humans
Chinese scientists Revealed
An academic team in Mainland China
released its latest H7N9 virus investigation results.
They claim, “three of four gene mutations
have been identified;
if another mutation site is found, it would likely result
in an effective human-to-human transmission.”
The media widely circulated their words,
triggering strong concerns by the public and experts.
However, a researcher told China's Central Television
(CCTV) that they had never mentioned “person-to-person transmission.”
A vaccine expert of Disease Control Centre
analyzes the reason for this denial.
On April 27, media reported that research team led by
Li Lanjuan from the Chinese Academy of Engineering,
made two breakthroughs in the study of H7N9 virus.
Firstly, they discovered that wet market poultry was likely
the source for human infections with H7N9 virus.
Secondly, the virus is spreading to mammals,
and could eventually mutate to human-to-human spread.
The research was published in internationally renowned
medical journal The Lancet.
Media reported, if H7N9 virus' genome sequence is sturdy,
transmission of the virus isn't easy.
The research found that four genes of H7N9 virus
are the key.
Three of the four genes had been identified as mutated.
If the forth mutates, it will destroy the genome' sturdiness.
Then, the H7N9 virus would effectively express
a human-to-human transmission.
Some media reporters asked: “Is the later possibility big?”
Li Lanjuan said that in the past, H5N1 and other A-viruses, didn't have key genes mutating.
Yet, this doesn't mean the same applies to H7N9,
so outbreak is not ruled out, which needs close attention.
However, the following day in a CCTV' interview Li denied
saying H7N9 virus mutation will cause human-to-human transmission.
She said, she cannot specify if transmission between
humans is to happen, as further study is needed.
Nevertheless, the public and experts
are skeptical about Li's denial.
Zhao Dahai, vaccine expert at a Disease Control Centre
in Mainland China: “She is afraid of stirring social unrest.
Human-to-human transmission will cause public panic,
thus she denied the saying.
However, if authorities deal with it in a scientific manner,
the social community will feel safe.
Without a scientific explanation, just telling the public
there will be no human-to-human transmission, the public won't trust you.
This will result in a panic among the public.”
Li also told media, she only made people aware if the virus
mutates further it is easier to transmit between mammals.
Netizens immediately asked, aren't humans mammals?
And isn't she playing with the words?
Zhao Dahai told NTD that H7N9 avian influenza can spread
human-to-human, it is just that no cases are found yet.
Zhao Dahai: “Actually, everyone knows about it,
they just don't want to say it.
For the human-to-human transmission issue, they only
talk on the surface that no evidence has been found yet.
However, when the doctors treat patients,
they take many precocious measures to deal with patients,
as they still worry that H7N9 virus
can transmit between humans.”
Zhao Dahai also thinks, analyzing Li Lanjuan's explanation,
one can tell H7N9 can not only transmit between humans,
but also can badly spread among humans, which can't be
covered up; otherwise authorities won't air this research.
Lu Jun, director of public health charity: “The authorities
always cover up the public health issues.
Their logic is to ‘maintain stability’. As long as the public
doesn't know, they can control all the information.
They also can control the impact of the situation.
That is within their line of interests.”
Zhao Dahai revealed another shocking information.
He said that by knowing H7N9 virus is capable
to spread between humans, the authorities let their prevention imagination go wild.
In hospitals, for fever treatment every patient is forced
to undergo the process of H7N9 virus checking;
thus some patients'treatments are being delayed,
this resulting in their death.
