【新唐人2013年09月18日讯】中国目前的地方债规模将突破20万亿，在这庞大的数字之下，中国超过50个城市仍在计划修建空港，说是为了投资。另一方面，中国已经出现多个城市的房地产崩盘或将要崩盘的情况。中共发改委顾问奉劝大家“明天开始卖房子”。
据《路透社》报导，中国超过50个城市，这些城市希望这些基础设施项目能吸引物流、高科技和金融领域的投资，但批评人士认为，这些项目都将使中国的问题进一步恶化。
“开锐谘询管理(Kent Ridge Consulting)”高级谘询师王晓华认为，建立空港并不简单，首先需要满足每年客运量至少达到1,000万人次，货物吞吐量达到20万吨。她表示，到去年（2012年）年底，中国只有北京、上海、广州、成都、昆明符合上述标准。
对于这一波的“空港建设”，“中国国际经济交流中心”研究员王军也表示，“这对整个国家不一定是件好事，因为这么多的项目往往会导致产能过剩，增加地方政府的债务负担。”
而目前中国大批地方政府已陷入“举新债还旧债”的恶性循环中。今年中共全国“两会”上，审计署有关人士表示，地方债务总额在15万亿到18万亿元，“中国社会科学院金融研究所”研究员刘煜辉估计，中国目前的地方债规模将突破20万亿。
根据中共审计署发布《三十六个地方政府审计结果》显示，36个地方政府债务总共为3万8千5百亿元。有16个地区债务率超过百分之一百，加上政府负有担保责任的债务，债务率最高达219.57%，这些地方政府实质已破产。
另外，在房地产方面，中共发改委顾问国世平再次发出了“卖掉房子买股票”的号召。国世平指出，虽然媒体报导中国有70个大中城市房价持续上涨，但“中国648个大中城市中，只有70个城市在涨，364个城市房子在跌，还有120个城市不涨不跌。”
美国资深经济分析师简天伦：“我想是有很多原因造成的，最主要还是政策，政策一步步导向到这里，为甚么呢？事实上，98年中国开始房地产改革，但是从那以后，中国的利率一直往下降，从10％左右一直降到1.98％，后来维持2-4％这样的水平，都低于通货膨胀，或者齐平，在这种情况下谁愿意储蓄呢？只有两个，要不投资股票，要不投资房地产。”
在中国房地产的疯狂投资和扭曲发展下，中国已经有了多座的所谓“鬼城”。内蒙古地方政府重金打造的一座空城——鄂尔多斯，就是其中一个。
简天伦：“现在鄂尔多斯，还有温州，还有贵阳其他一些城市，其实已经在下降，当某一个城市价格下的很多，而影响到资金链，有些银行的贷款收不回来的时候，那么银行是全国性，这个骨牌效应可能就很严重，一垮那可能就会全垮。”
同时也是“深圳大学当代金融研究所”所长的国世平，在“清华大学”总裁班授课时提出“房地产崩盘论”，他说，现在中共中央内部预计房子很快就要崩盘，已经崩盘或很快就要崩盘的有110个城市，他还奉劝在场的学员赶快卖掉所有的房子，一套都不要剩。
纽约城市大学教授陈志飞：“百姓为了生计，为了将来的安全，主要是他的养老各方面，社会安保都很不完善，只好把钱投注在房地产，如果这110个城市，这鬼城彻底瘫塌，他们的幻想彻底破灭，这不仅是经济问题，这的确是最大的政治问题。”
根据公开资料盘点全中国鬼城，内蒙古排名第一，共有4座“鬼城”，河南排名第二，共有3座，江苏排名第三，共有2座，其馀还有更严重的“鬼城”遍布在四线、五线的城市。
采访/陈汉 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
Chinese Regime Wants to Build More Airports to Attract Foreign Investment
Currently, local governments in China will soon acquire
more than 20 trillion in debt.
Under this circumstance, more than 50 cities still plan
to build more airports for investment purposes.
On the other hand, a real state crash will soon take place
in many cities.
A consultant from the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) advised everyone to begin to sell their houses tomorrow.
According to Reuters, China plans to build more airports
in fifty-some cities and hopes to attract more logistics, high-tech and financial investments.
However, critics say these infrastructure projects
will instead worsen China's problems.
Wang Xiaohua, senior consultant of Kent Ridge Consulting,
believes that building airports is not a simple matter,
one must meet criteria of 10 million passengers
and 200,000 tons of cargo throughout.
By the end of 2012, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
Chengdu, and Kunming meet the above criteria.
Wang Jun, a researcher of China International Economic
Exchange Center, also said that building more airports may not be a good thing for our nation as a whole.
Because more projects often lead to over-capacity
and increase local governments' debt burden.
Currently, many local governments have fallen into
a vicious cycle, obtaining new loans to repay old loans.
During the Two Sessions this year, the Audit Commission
disclosed that the total debt from China's local governments reached 15 to 18 trillion yuan.
Liu Yuhui, a financial researcher from Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, estimates that China's current local debt will exceed 20 trillion.
According to the Audit Commission, 36 local governments'
total debt reached 3.85 trillion.
16 regional local governments exceeded one hundred percent
with the highest rate being 219.57%.
In reality, these governments are bankrupt.
In addition, regarding real estate, Guo Shiping, NDRC
consultant, points out that the Chinese media outlets reported
that "housing prices continue to rise in 70 large cities, but
fell in 364 cities and remain the same in another 120 cities."
Jian Tianlun, U.S. senior economic analyst: "I think there
is more than one reason causing this problem.
The most important one is the policy.
Step by step, it turned into the current condition.
Indeed, after 1998, China began to reform the real estate,
China's interest rates began to decline, from 10% to 1.98%,
and later maintained at a level of 2-4%, which is lower than the inflation rate.
No one wants to save money with interest rates that low,
so only two options remain – stock market and real estate."
After a frenzy and twisted development in China's real estate,
many ghost town appeared.
Erdos, built with heavy governmental investment
in Inner Mongolia is one of them.
Jian Tianlun: "Besides Erdos, there are Wenzhou,
Guiyang,and other cities.
In fact, their housing prices have already been in decline.
When prices fall heavily in one city, it will
affect the funding chain.
When loans from many banks are not being paid,
the domino effect may be more serious.
One bank's collapse may cause all to collapse."
When teaching a course in "real estate collapse theory"
at Tsinghua University, Guo Shiping, director of the Institute
of Contemporary Finance, Shenzhen University, advised his
students to sell all their houses fast.
He predicts a housing collapse will come soon.
He pointed out that the Chinese regime expects a housing
collapse to occur soon in 110 cities.
Chen Zhifei, professor at City University of New York:
"People put money in real estate for safety and retirement.
If these 110 cities are totally paralyzed, people's dreams
will be shattered.
That is not only an economist issue, but also a political issue."
According to public information, among all cities in China,
Inner Mongolia has four ghost towns, Henan has three,
and Jiangsu has two.
Ghost towns are an even more serious issue all over
less-known and smaller cities.
据《路透社》报导，中国超过50个城市，这些城市希望这些基础设施项目能吸引物流、高科技和金融领域的投资，但批评人士认为，这些项目都将使中国的问题进一步恶化。
“开锐谘询管理(Kent Ridge Consulting)”高级谘询师王晓华认为，建立空港并不简单，首先需要满足每年客运量至少达到1,000万人次，货物吞吐量达到20万吨。她表示，到去年（2012年）年底，中国只有北京、上海、广州、成都、昆明符合上述标准。
对于这一波的“空港建设”，“中国国际经济交流中心”研究员王军也表示，“这对整个国家不一定是件好事，因为这么多的项目往往会导致产能过剩，增加地方政府的债务负担。”
而目前中国大批地方政府已陷入“举新债还旧债”的恶性循环中。今年中共全国“两会”上，审计署有关人士表示，地方债务总额在15万亿到18万亿元，“中国社会科学院金融研究所”研究员刘煜辉估计，中国目前的地方债规模将突破20万亿。
根据中共审计署发布《三十六个地方政府审计结果》显示，36个地方政府债务总共为3万8千5百亿元。有16个地区债务率超过百分之一百，加上政府负有担保责任的债务，债务率最高达219.57%，这些地方政府实质已破产。
另外，在房地产方面，中共发改委顾问国世平再次发出了“卖掉房子买股票”的号召。国世平指出，虽然媒体报导中国有70个大中城市房价持续上涨，但“中国648个大中城市中，只有70个城市在涨，364个城市房子在跌，还有120个城市不涨不跌。”
美国资深经济分析师简天伦：“我想是有很多原因造成的，最主要还是政策，政策一步步导向到这里，为甚么呢？事实上，98年中国开始房地产改革，但是从那以后，中国的利率一直往下降，从10％左右一直降到1.98％，后来维持2-4％这样的水平，都低于通货膨胀，或者齐平，在这种情况下谁愿意储蓄呢？只有两个，要不投资股票，要不投资房地产。”
在中国房地产的疯狂投资和扭曲发展下，中国已经有了多座的所谓“鬼城”。内蒙古地方政府重金打造的一座空城——鄂尔多斯，就是其中一个。
简天伦：“现在鄂尔多斯，还有温州，还有贵阳其他一些城市，其实已经在下降，当某一个城市价格下的很多，而影响到资金链，有些银行的贷款收不回来的时候，那么银行是全国性，这个骨牌效应可能就很严重，一垮那可能就会全垮。”
同时也是“深圳大学当代金融研究所”所长的国世平，在“清华大学”总裁班授课时提出“房地产崩盘论”，他说，现在中共中央内部预计房子很快就要崩盘，已经崩盘或很快就要崩盘的有110个城市，他还奉劝在场的学员赶快卖掉所有的房子，一套都不要剩。
纽约城市大学教授陈志飞：“百姓为了生计，为了将来的安全，主要是他的养老各方面，社会安保都很不完善，只好把钱投注在房地产，如果这110个城市，这鬼城彻底瘫塌，他们的幻想彻底破灭，这不仅是经济问题，这的确是最大的政治问题。”
根据公开资料盘点全中国鬼城，内蒙古排名第一，共有4座“鬼城”，河南排名第二，共有3座，江苏排名第三，共有2座，其馀还有更严重的“鬼城”遍布在四线、五线的城市。
采访/陈汉 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
Chinese Regime Wants to Build More Airports to Attract Foreign Investment
Currently, local governments in China will soon acquire
more than 20 trillion in debt.
Under this circumstance, more than 50 cities still plan
to build more airports for investment purposes.
On the other hand, a real state crash will soon take place
in many cities.
A consultant from the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) advised everyone to begin to sell their houses tomorrow.
According to Reuters, China plans to build more airports
in fifty-some cities and hopes to attract more logistics, high-tech and financial investments.
However, critics say these infrastructure projects
will instead worsen China's problems.
Wang Xiaohua, senior consultant of Kent Ridge Consulting,
believes that building airports is not a simple matter,
one must meet criteria of 10 million passengers
and 200,000 tons of cargo throughout.
By the end of 2012, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
Chengdu, and Kunming meet the above criteria.
Wang Jun, a researcher of China International Economic
Exchange Center, also said that building more airports may not be a good thing for our nation as a whole.
Because more projects often lead to over-capacity
and increase local governments' debt burden.
Currently, many local governments have fallen into
a vicious cycle, obtaining new loans to repay old loans.
During the Two Sessions this year, the Audit Commission
disclosed that the total debt from China's local governments reached 15 to 18 trillion yuan.
Liu Yuhui, a financial researcher from Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, estimates that China's current local debt will exceed 20 trillion.
According to the Audit Commission, 36 local governments'
total debt reached 3.85 trillion.
16 regional local governments exceeded one hundred percent
with the highest rate being 219.57%.
In reality, these governments are bankrupt.
In addition, regarding real estate, Guo Shiping, NDRC
consultant, points out that the Chinese media outlets reported
that "housing prices continue to rise in 70 large cities, but
fell in 364 cities and remain the same in another 120 cities."
Jian Tianlun, U.S. senior economic analyst: "I think there
is more than one reason causing this problem.
The most important one is the policy.
Step by step, it turned into the current condition.
Indeed, after 1998, China began to reform the real estate,
China's interest rates began to decline, from 10% to 1.98%,
and later maintained at a level of 2-4%, which is lower than the inflation rate.
No one wants to save money with interest rates that low,
so only two options remain – stock market and real estate."
After a frenzy and twisted development in China's real estate,
many ghost town appeared.
Erdos, built with heavy governmental investment
in Inner Mongolia is one of them.
Jian Tianlun: "Besides Erdos, there are Wenzhou,
Guiyang,and other cities.
In fact, their housing prices have already been in decline.
When prices fall heavily in one city, it will
affect the funding chain.
When loans from many banks are not being paid,
the domino effect may be more serious.
One bank's collapse may cause all to collapse."
When teaching a course in "real estate collapse theory"
at Tsinghua University, Guo Shiping, director of the Institute
of Contemporary Finance, Shenzhen University, advised his
students to sell all their houses fast.
He predicts a housing collapse will come soon.
He pointed out that the Chinese regime expects a housing
collapse to occur soon in 110 cities.
Chen Zhifei, professor at City University of New York:
"People put money in real estate for safety and retirement.
If these 110 cities are totally paralyzed, people's dreams
will be shattered.
That is not only an economist issue, but also a political issue."
According to public information, among all cities in China,
Inner Mongolia has four ghost towns, Henan has three,
and Jiangsu has two.
Ghost towns are an even more serious issue all over
less-known and smaller cities.
