【新唐人2013年09月18日訊】中國目前的地方債規模將突破20萬億，在這龐大的數字之下，中國超過50個城市仍在計劃修建空港，說是為了投資。另一方面，中國已經出現多個城市的房地產崩盤或將要崩盤的情況。中共發改委顧問奉勸大家「明天開始賣房子」。
據《路透社》報導，中國超過50個城市，這些城市希望這些基礎設施項目能吸引物流、高科技和金融領域的投資，但批評人士認為，這些項目都將使中國的問題進一步惡化。
「開銳諮詢管理(Kent Ridge Consulting)」高級諮詢師王曉華認為，建立空港並不簡單，首先需要滿足每年客運量至少達到1,000萬人次，貨物吞吐量達到20萬噸。她表示，到去年（2012年）年底，中國只有北京、上海、廣州、成都、昆明符合上述標準。
對於這一波的「空港建設」，「中國國際經濟交流中心」研究員王軍也表示，「這對整個國家不一定是件好事，因為這麼多的項目往往會導致產能過剩，增加地方政府的債務負擔。」
而目前中國大批地方政府已陷入「舉新債還舊債」的惡性循環中。今年中共全國「兩會」上，審計署有關人士表示，地方債務總額在15萬億到18萬億元，「中國社會科學院金融研究所」研究員劉煜輝估計，中國目前的地方債規模將突破20萬億。
根據中共審計署發佈《三十六個地方政府審計結果》顯示，36個地方政府債務總共為3萬8千5百億元。有16個地區債務率超過百分之一百，加上政府負有擔保責任的債務，債務率最高達219.57%，這些地方政府實質已破產。
另外，在房地產方面，中共發改委顧問國世平再次發出了「賣掉房子買股票」的號召。國世平指出，雖然媒體報導中國有70個大中城市房價持續上漲，但「中國648個大中城市中，只有70個城市在漲，364個城市房子在跌，還有120個城市不漲不跌。」
美國資深經濟分析師簡天倫：「我想是有很多原因造成的，最主要還是政策，政策一步步導向到這裡，為甚麼呢？事實上，98年中國開始房地產改革，但是從那以後，中國的利率一直往下降，從10％左右一直降到1.98％，後來維持2-4％這樣的水平，都低於通貨膨脹，或者齊平，在這種情況下誰願意儲蓄呢？只有兩個，要不投資股票，要不投資房地產。」
在中國房地產的瘋狂投資和扭曲發展下，中國已經有了多座的所謂「鬼城」。內蒙古地方政府重金打造的一座空城——鄂爾多斯，就是其中一個。
簡天倫：「現在鄂爾多斯，還有溫州，還有貴陽其他一些城市，其實已經在下降，當某一個城市價格下的很多，而影響到資金鏈，有些銀行的貸款收不回來的時候，那麼銀行是全國性，這個骨牌效應可能就很嚴重，一垮那可能就會全垮。」
同時也是「深圳大學當代金融研究所」所長的國世平，在「清華大學」總裁班授課時提出「房地產崩盤論」，他說，現在中共中央內部預計房子很快就要崩盤，已經崩盤或很快就要崩盤的有110個城市，他還奉勸在場的學員趕快賣掉所有的房子，一套都不要剩。
紐約城市大學教授陳志飛：「百姓為了生計，為了將來的安全，主要是他的養老各方面，社會安保都很不完善，只好把錢投注在房地產，如果這110個城市，這鬼城徹底癱塌，他們的幻想徹底破滅，這不僅是經濟問題，這的確是最大的政治問題。」
根據公開資料盤點全中國鬼城，內蒙古排名第一，共有4座「鬼城」，河南排名第二，共有3座，江蘇排名第三，共有2座，其餘還有更嚴重的「鬼城」遍佈在四線、五線的城市。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬
Chinese Regime Wants to Build More Airports to Attract Foreign Investment
Currently, local governments in China will soon acquire
more than 20 trillion in debt.
Under this circumstance, more than 50 cities still plan
to build more airports for investment purposes.
On the other hand, a real state crash will soon take place
in many cities.
A consultant from the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) advised everyone to begin to sell their houses tomorrow.
According to Reuters, China plans to build more airports
in fifty-some cities and hopes to attract more logistics, high-tech and financial investments.
However, critics say these infrastructure projects
will instead worsen China's problems.
Wang Xiaohua, senior consultant of Kent Ridge Consulting,
believes that building airports is not a simple matter,
one must meet criteria of 10 million passengers
and 200,000 tons of cargo throughout.
By the end of 2012, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
Chengdu, and Kunming meet the above criteria.
Wang Jun, a researcher of China International Economic
Exchange Center, also said that building more airports may not be a good thing for our nation as a whole.
Because more projects often lead to over-capacity
and increase local governments' debt burden.
Currently, many local governments have fallen into
a vicious cycle, obtaining new loans to repay old loans.
During the Two Sessions this year, the Audit Commission
disclosed that the total debt from China's local governments reached 15 to 18 trillion yuan.
Liu Yuhui, a financial researcher from Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, estimates that China's current local debt will exceed 20 trillion.
According to the Audit Commission, 36 local governments'
total debt reached 3.85 trillion.
16 regional local governments exceeded one hundred percent
with the highest rate being 219.57%.
In reality, these governments are bankrupt.
In addition, regarding real estate, Guo Shiping, NDRC
consultant, points out that the Chinese media outlets reported
that "housing prices continue to rise in 70 large cities, but
fell in 364 cities and remain the same in another 120 cities."
Jian Tianlun, U.S. senior economic analyst: "I think there
is more than one reason causing this problem.
The most important one is the policy.
Step by step, it turned into the current condition.
Indeed, after 1998, China began to reform the real estate,
China's interest rates began to decline, from 10% to 1.98%,
and later maintained at a level of 2-4%, which is lower than the inflation rate.
No one wants to save money with interest rates that low,
so only two options remain – stock market and real estate."
After a frenzy and twisted development in China's real estate,
many ghost town appeared.
Erdos, built with heavy governmental investment
in Inner Mongolia is one of them.
Jian Tianlun: "Besides Erdos, there are Wenzhou,
Guiyang,and other cities.
In fact, their housing prices have already been in decline.
When prices fall heavily in one city, it will
affect the funding chain.
When loans from many banks are not being paid,
the domino effect may be more serious.
One bank's collapse may cause all to collapse."
When teaching a course in "real estate collapse theory"
at Tsinghua University, Guo Shiping, director of the Institute
of Contemporary Finance, Shenzhen University, advised his
students to sell all their houses fast.
He predicts a housing collapse will come soon.
He pointed out that the Chinese regime expects a housing
collapse to occur soon in 110 cities.
Chen Zhifei, professor at City University of New York:
"People put money in real estate for safety and retirement.
If these 110 cities are totally paralyzed, people's dreams
will be shattered.
That is not only an economist issue, but also a political issue."
According to public information, among all cities in China,
Inner Mongolia has four ghost towns, Henan has three,
and Jiangsu has two.
Ghost towns are an even more serious issue all over
less-known and smaller cities.
據《路透社》報導，中國超過50個城市，這些城市希望這些基礎設施項目能吸引物流、高科技和金融領域的投資，但批評人士認為，這些項目都將使中國的問題進一步惡化。
「開銳諮詢管理(Kent Ridge Consulting)」高級諮詢師王曉華認為，建立空港並不簡單，首先需要滿足每年客運量至少達到1,000萬人次，貨物吞吐量達到20萬噸。她表示，到去年（2012年）年底，中國只有北京、上海、廣州、成都、昆明符合上述標準。
對於這一波的「空港建設」，「中國國際經濟交流中心」研究員王軍也表示，「這對整個國家不一定是件好事，因為這麼多的項目往往會導致產能過剩，增加地方政府的債務負擔。」
而目前中國大批地方政府已陷入「舉新債還舊債」的惡性循環中。今年中共全國「兩會」上，審計署有關人士表示，地方債務總額在15萬億到18萬億元，「中國社會科學院金融研究所」研究員劉煜輝估計，中國目前的地方債規模將突破20萬億。
根據中共審計署發佈《三十六個地方政府審計結果》顯示，36個地方政府債務總共為3萬8千5百億元。有16個地區債務率超過百分之一百，加上政府負有擔保責任的債務，債務率最高達219.57%，這些地方政府實質已破產。
另外，在房地產方面，中共發改委顧問國世平再次發出了「賣掉房子買股票」的號召。國世平指出，雖然媒體報導中國有70個大中城市房價持續上漲，但「中國648個大中城市中，只有70個城市在漲，364個城市房子在跌，還有120個城市不漲不跌。」
美國資深經濟分析師簡天倫：「我想是有很多原因造成的，最主要還是政策，政策一步步導向到這裡，為甚麼呢？事實上，98年中國開始房地產改革，但是從那以後，中國的利率一直往下降，從10％左右一直降到1.98％，後來維持2-4％這樣的水平，都低於通貨膨脹，或者齊平，在這種情況下誰願意儲蓄呢？只有兩個，要不投資股票，要不投資房地產。」
在中國房地產的瘋狂投資和扭曲發展下，中國已經有了多座的所謂「鬼城」。內蒙古地方政府重金打造的一座空城——鄂爾多斯，就是其中一個。
簡天倫：「現在鄂爾多斯，還有溫州，還有貴陽其他一些城市，其實已經在下降，當某一個城市價格下的很多，而影響到資金鏈，有些銀行的貸款收不回來的時候，那麼銀行是全國性，這個骨牌效應可能就很嚴重，一垮那可能就會全垮。」
同時也是「深圳大學當代金融研究所」所長的國世平，在「清華大學」總裁班授課時提出「房地產崩盤論」，他說，現在中共中央內部預計房子很快就要崩盤，已經崩盤或很快就要崩盤的有110個城市，他還奉勸在場的學員趕快賣掉所有的房子，一套都不要剩。
紐約城市大學教授陳志飛：「百姓為了生計，為了將來的安全，主要是他的養老各方面，社會安保都很不完善，只好把錢投注在房地產，如果這110個城市，這鬼城徹底癱塌，他們的幻想徹底破滅，這不僅是經濟問題，這的確是最大的政治問題。」
根據公開資料盤點全中國鬼城，內蒙古排名第一，共有4座「鬼城」，河南排名第二，共有3座，江蘇排名第三，共有2座，其餘還有更嚴重的「鬼城」遍佈在四線、五線的城市。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬
Chinese Regime Wants to Build More Airports to Attract Foreign Investment
Currently, local governments in China will soon acquire
more than 20 trillion in debt.
Under this circumstance, more than 50 cities still plan
to build more airports for investment purposes.
On the other hand, a real state crash will soon take place
in many cities.
A consultant from the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) advised everyone to begin to sell their houses tomorrow.
According to Reuters, China plans to build more airports
in fifty-some cities and hopes to attract more logistics, high-tech and financial investments.
However, critics say these infrastructure projects
will instead worsen China's problems.
Wang Xiaohua, senior consultant of Kent Ridge Consulting,
believes that building airports is not a simple matter,
one must meet criteria of 10 million passengers
and 200,000 tons of cargo throughout.
By the end of 2012, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
Chengdu, and Kunming meet the above criteria.
Wang Jun, a researcher of China International Economic
Exchange Center, also said that building more airports may not be a good thing for our nation as a whole.
Because more projects often lead to over-capacity
and increase local governments' debt burden.
Currently, many local governments have fallen into
a vicious cycle, obtaining new loans to repay old loans.
During the Two Sessions this year, the Audit Commission
disclosed that the total debt from China's local governments reached 15 to 18 trillion yuan.
Liu Yuhui, a financial researcher from Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, estimates that China's current local debt will exceed 20 trillion.
According to the Audit Commission, 36 local governments'
total debt reached 3.85 trillion.
16 regional local governments exceeded one hundred percent
with the highest rate being 219.57%.
In reality, these governments are bankrupt.
In addition, regarding real estate, Guo Shiping, NDRC
consultant, points out that the Chinese media outlets reported
that "housing prices continue to rise in 70 large cities, but
fell in 364 cities and remain the same in another 120 cities."
Jian Tianlun, U.S. senior economic analyst: "I think there
is more than one reason causing this problem.
The most important one is the policy.
Step by step, it turned into the current condition.
Indeed, after 1998, China began to reform the real estate,
China's interest rates began to decline, from 10% to 1.98%,
and later maintained at a level of 2-4%, which is lower than the inflation rate.
No one wants to save money with interest rates that low,
so only two options remain – stock market and real estate."
After a frenzy and twisted development in China's real estate,
many ghost town appeared.
Erdos, built with heavy governmental investment
in Inner Mongolia is one of them.
Jian Tianlun: "Besides Erdos, there are Wenzhou,
Guiyang,and other cities.
In fact, their housing prices have already been in decline.
When prices fall heavily in one city, it will
affect the funding chain.
When loans from many banks are not being paid,
the domino effect may be more serious.
One bank's collapse may cause all to collapse."
When teaching a course in "real estate collapse theory"
at Tsinghua University, Guo Shiping, director of the Institute
of Contemporary Finance, Shenzhen University, advised his
students to sell all their houses fast.
He predicts a housing collapse will come soon.
He pointed out that the Chinese regime expects a housing
collapse to occur soon in 110 cities.
Chen Zhifei, professor at City University of New York:
"People put money in real estate for safety and retirement.
If these 110 cities are totally paralyzed, people's dreams
will be shattered.
That is not only an economist issue, but also a political issue."
According to public information, among all cities in China,
Inner Mongolia has four ghost towns, Henan has three,
and Jiangsu has two.
Ghost towns are an even more serious issue all over
less-known and smaller cities.
